AL UDEID AIR BASE, Qatar – After days of intelligence gathering the target is finally locked in.
An ISIS position in Syria has been identified and a Coalition jet is heading for its final approach to its target.
A thunderstorm between the aircraft’s operating location and the battlefield means the fighter jet will have to refuel or risk not being able to return to the airfield.
Luckily, Weather Specialty Team (WST) members in the 609th Air Operations Center anticipated the incoming weather system and advised aircrews of the needed adjustment in flight plans – enabling a Coalition tanker to preposition close by and the jet to complete its mission.
The small team of enlisted forecasters and commissioned weather officers in the weather specialty team is tasked with the crucial mission of weather prediction for the entire Air Forces Central Command area of responsibility. Here, sitting behind rows of computer screens on the densely populated operations floor of the Combined Air Operations Center at Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, they support Coalition subject matter experts from a variety of airpower specialties during the coordination of air operations against ISIS and other regional threats.
“The purpose of the WST is to be able to connect the strategic and operational component of weather forecasting,” said Maj. Ryan Willis, weather specialty team cell chief. “We are responsible for providing weather inputs to the Combined Forces Air Component Commander (CFACC) and his staff in a timely fashion and a relevant way. Weather information our team provides is used to work with other component commanders and allow go/no-go weather decisions.”
Accurate information on weather threats is crucial for mission planning and keeps aviators and ground operators safe. Knowing what to expect in the air allows aircrews to mitigate and minimize threats and adjust their procedures.
One of the biggest hazards to flying in the perpetually sunny AFCENT area of operations is extreme heat, thunderstorms and rapidly changing wind conditions. In desert regions, high wind can cause dangerous sandstorms, lifting sand and dust, reducing visibility even at high altitudes. Whether during airdrop missions or bombing runs, wind patterns can be essential in getting to the target with the right amount of fuel.
“Weather integrates into almost all aspects of the mission,” said Staff Sgt. Michael Clevenger, weather forecaster with the 609th AOC. “Weather elements such as temperature or winds can affect take off, munitions being dropped, and the amount of cargo or personnel transported. Depending on the aircraft that can cause serious problems and accurate forecasts allow aircrews to take precautions.”
When weather systems push through the region, the team stands ready to answer requests as missions and information needs develop– providing CAOC planners with various options such as divert landing locations or alternate travel routes during missions
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“Anyone that needs information knows where to find us and has easy access to the information,” Clevenger said. “Sometimes we have to react immediately for dynamic strikes and get information on-demand, so we have to give (aviation teams) the information on-the-spot, as fast as we can.”
Working around the clock, the weather experts are dedicated to careful review of data and translating information into comprehensive presentations that informs decision makers of upcoming weather in the next 40-48 hours. Air Force leaders rely heavily on the assessment of the team and base operational plans on the long and short-term weather prediction.
"Weather is the first thing we check in the morning in war and peace,” said Col. Paul J. Maykish, the commander of the 609th Air Operations Center. “Nothing so out of our control in nature has more impact on operations. The Weather Support Team leads us into that great unknown."
On countless charts, a constant stream of information from weather satellites, manned and unmanned monitoring stations and powerful Doppler radars provide clues to the developments throughout the atmosphere and beyond – as even sun events can influence satellite communication and data links.
Despite the already staggering amount of data they tackle every day, Clevenger said the team often has to extrapolate information to fill regional gaps in measurements, making their forecasts more difficult.
“The region is a bit of a challenge because we don’t have a lot of data out here,” Clevenger said. “Back in the states we have a lot of available sensors throughout the country telling us what the weather is like at any given location. Here you have to use a lot more meteorological reasoning, look at satellite imagery and stations that are a few hundred miles away to make your assessment. It takes confidence to make an accurate prediction and firm decision -- because a lot of people rely on it.”
The team depends on data sets meticulously prepared by fellow Air Force and joint services weather teams at bases throughout Southwest Asia. Clevenger said that his wingmen in the field submit the most credible data when it comes to the region.
“We need to be able to make steadfast decisions on forecasts,” he said.” Most of the time we don’t have a lot of real-time weather data in the area, so the information from the site forecasters is what I trust the most. They spend a lot of their time focusing on generating accurate and consistent data.”
Charts and rows of numbers reflect the locations’ measurements of temperature, pressure, humidity, winds and other statistics. Trained with a solid foundation in meteorology and aviation technology, the crew relies on years of experience and works at the intersection of art and science of prognosis to interpret the raw data and discern potential impacts on ongoing missions in the region.
Before deploying to locations like the CAOC, the forecasters attend specialized introductory courses at Hurlburt Field, Florida, and Shaw AFB, South Carolina, to prepare for the high-stress environment that includes various operational domains.
“We provide the minute-by-minute updates to combat operations division leaders, to allow them to make critical real-time decisions as to what to do to support operations and whether particular missions are going to be affected,” Willis said. “We have to fully integrate the weather perspective into the air operations center and see the big picture -- from strategic level down to the tactical level and everything in between.”
While weather cannot be controlled, the team will continue to allow Coalition leaders to include environmental conditions into ever-changing operational plans, requiring the forecasters to brave the difficult calls with confidence in their predictions.
“I enjoy the challenge of this mission,” Clevenger said. “I like being able to put forward information to help key leaders make large-scale decisions. The good feedback we get is rewarding and I like seeing how the information we give directly affects the mission.”